The Coming of the Civil War?

What is the likelihood that the United States could have a second civil war? The topic has been mentioned a few times since the election, though no discussion ever occurs on the matter because that would be too radical for most people. Though as a history geek it is a fascinating topic to think about.

The country is divided. Not north and south, but urban and rural. Not blue and gray, but blue and red. Liberals were disgusted by 8 years of George W. Bush and conservatives are horrified by 8 years of Barack Obama. Is that itself enough to lead to a civil war? Not likely, but of course that’s not all there is to it.

The country is more than just in disagreement. Essentially half the country feels threatened and persecuted. Their concerns are not without merit.

But could there actually be a civil war? I seriously doubt it.

While half the country feels chased I don’t think the typical modern American has it in them to do anything about it. Surely there are a great number of individual Americans who would be willing to do something, but the majority wouldn’t do anything.

It’s not worth the risk. Why risk their lives for freedom and what they think is the better way of life when they have a pretty nice life going anyway. When’s the last time they had to struggle for anything?

This is why we don’t see any revolutions in advanced and open countries. Sure, part of the reason is because they are advanced and open societies that they don’t induce revolutions but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t.

During the American revolution and the French revolution, the Bolshevik revolution, those countries were at the peak of moderninity. Modern is a moment in time, not a place.

Americans are too soft to rebel against their government. The hunters and gun owners who are listed as threats to the government are nothing without popular support.

Chris Dorner may have tied up the LAPD for a week by himself, so individuals can cause big acts, however without extended support they  will likely not last all that long.

The American Civil War occurred not because individuals Southerners were upset at the differences with the North and decided to act on their impulses but because the states they lived in had those ideas and were willing to act upon them.

Civil wars occur because people have something they believe is worth fighting for and haven’t got much to lose in trying to get it. How many residents of Shaker Heights, Ohio are going to sacrifice their Lexus, single serve coffee maker, and primetime TV to sit in a foxhole and watch the perimeter for tanks coming up the Ohio river valley? Not many. It’s too hard and asks to much.

The United States will not see another civil war. It’s people are too docile and no change would be affected by small individual acts. A few angry people do not represent the entirety of American inertia. The only chance for something like this to happen again is if it followed the same path as before and it was a single state, perhaps with others following along, declaring independence and seceding. Then the question becomes, if Americans are too feeble to conduct a civil war, would they also be too feeble to drag a nation back into the union again?

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About Moose

I am who I am

Posted on March 1, 2013, in Hope for America, No Hope For America, Problems to Ponder and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 6 Comments.

  1. The divisions between groups are far too diverse right now. A catalyst requires some unifying concrete objective.

    “More freedom” is a concept (and a pretty nebulous one as definitions vary extremely widely). Under invasion and/or overt tyrannical government, people might unify for that but as you mentioned things are comfortable now. Even if and when things become less comfortable, an unorganized angry mob isn’t a revolution…that’s the reason for the modern day bread and circuses (same reason Rome employed them, to pacify the mob).

    Revolution isn’t something to be taken lightly though, here’s an example of a modern day revolution:
    http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTR3BBJ0#a=1

    • Exactly right. History proves there is always some form of catalyst to start all movements. The grievances build up over the time prior too, but there is still a lexington & concord, Archduke Franz Ferdinand moment to kick things off.

      Any drastic change will be met with resistance. The best thing anyone can do is change it slowly, like its being done now here. Change it so they dont even realize it before its to late, rather than having to physically fight for it.
      A collapse of the government through a depression seems more likely than anything that would start an internal revolution. It wouldn’t be worth it for anyone, but if the government collapsed, then people wouldnt have as much of a choice.

      Bread and circuses is so effective, its still working for the Romans while Syria is a great example of people having more to gain than lose.

  2. I am inclined to agree, unless the rift becomes far more geographically oriented, which could happen but isn’t the case at the moment, then there won’t be a popular civil war. However, I have often wondered if there could be a political war of sorts, were we see political parties becoming increasingly violent towards their opponents. It happens in Kenya every four years, and it happened to Rome before the fall of the republic.

    • That’s probably more likely. A little violence between groups might happen in a few cases, which could in turn become a larger matter but that depends more on the specifics on the initial clash and the government response to it.
      As much as I want to debate this possibility I’m finding that its hard to without having any specifics as to what could happen. We can speculate if A happens, that B would happen in return, but its all just speculation to say what A would even be.

  3. Hope you got a gun.
    Im horrified by 8 years of bush, and 8 years of bush 2.0

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